PBBP audio Jan 8 Will Carter [00:00:00] Welcome to the Phoenix Business Brief Podcast. I'm Brian Hyde. I'm joined today by realtor Will Carter, who serves the Greater Phoenix Metro area. And will, it's great to have you on, on the program with us. For those meeting you for the very first time, would you take just a moment to tell us a little bit about your background, about who you are and what you do? Yeah. Thanks Brian. Thanks for having me on. Appreciate it. Um, yeah, so I've been, uh, in the real estate business here in Arizona for 30 years. Um, I tell people I started when I was 10 that way, you know, I don't, I don't think I'm so old. Um, but I've definitely seen a lot of changes in the, the market here. Um, in, in 30 years. There's been a lot of growth in Arizona. Um. A lot of changes in, you know, we have more condos, more townhouse, all that kind of stuff that we didn't have before. Um, yeah, so there's been a lot of changes and, and it's been very fun to grow up in this business and, um, to be able to help as many people as I've, as I have, as we were chatting just before we went on the air here. Um. You had mentioned that, that [00:01:00] a lot of people kind of have sort of a knee jerk or negative reaction when, when they talk about, uh, residential real estate and, and there is, there's a lot of doom and gloom out there, but hopefully we can provide some perspective today as to, to what's going on with the market. So let's begin with that. As you, as a realtor look around at to the Phoenix market and the surrounding area, um, what is your sense? Are you optimistic? Are you, uh, feeling pessimistic? Somewhere in between those two? Yeah, so I would say that I, I'm always optimistic because I think it's always a good time to buy. For certain people in certain sit situations, right? There's no market that's perfect for everybody. Um, when we're in a buyer's market and you know, we have a lot of inventory, like we have now, it's some good opportunities for buyers to, um, get some help on closing costs, get some help on concessions that they haven't had that opportunity in the past 10 years. So in that respect, it's a really good time. For somebody that's coming in and maybe doesn't have a lot of money to put down or a lot of money for closing costs, we can get some help from the seller. So there's always a good time to buy and there's always [00:02:00] a bad time to buy, and it has nothing to do with what the market goes on, and it has to do with kind of what their specific situation is. And let's, let's talk a little bit about some of the, the specific situations that come into play here. I know that, uh, younger people, particularly millennials and, and Gen Y or Gen Z, um, will say. You know, they have no hope. Oh, everything's too expensive. How are we ever gonna get into a home like, like the boomers or Generation X did. What is your take on, on the, uh, the generational gap there? Is, is that a real thing or is it just a mindset? I think it's just a mindset, honestly. Um, I have kids from 23 to 33, and the most important thing for me was for them to get into a house as soon as possible. Um, and so we helped them do that. And the reason being is if you look at the statistics. Someone that owns a house versus someone that doesn't own a house, they have a 400% higher net worth. And so to me it was this important to get somebody in. And so that's literally my goal the last several years is to educate younger people on, there are some opportunities out there. There is a way to do this. [00:03:00] Let's just figure out what your situation is and, and get you started. Because I hear so many times why I don't want to pay a mortgage. Well, you're paying a mortgage regardless. You're either paying your mortgage or you're paying somebody else's mortgage. And. It all has to make sense mathematically. So let's sit down, get your situation, put it on paper, and I can show you, does it make sense for you now or does it not make sense for you? And if it doesn't, let's make a plan for how it's gonna make sense and when we can get there. But there is no one size fits all answer. There's absolutely not. I mean, literally every situation is different and um, for me it's really important to understand their goals and their current situation so we can make a game plan. So you had mentioned earlier that there is, there's a lot of inventory now. Was this the case even just a few years ago? I know that, that some states, particularly in the Western us, really have struggled to keep inventory because there was a lot of, uh, people moving from state to state. Um, did, did Arizona, did Phoenix particularly face that, that kind of a, an inventory shortage? [00:04:00] Yeah. With, you know, going all the way back, uh. 10 years. I mean, we've had an inventory shortage for a long time and the past three years we've seen it continue to grow. And right now we're what's considered a normal market as far as how the inventory, um, and we say it's a normal market, but really everyone's been so used to having no inventory. So it feels like it's a lot of inventory out there. And right now we probably have five months worth of inventory. And the thing about the market here is if you look at this year versus last year versus the year before, we've sold about the same number of houses. So that the selling hasn't slowed down, but we have a lot more inventory. So things are not as many places that are for sale are selling percentage wise. And so it feels like things aren't selling. But if you look at the last three years, we're about flat on the number of sales. And can we talk a little bit about, uh, about price ranges? 'cause I, I know in, in many markets you'll find, uh, there's, there's a certain price and once it gets below that price, um, you know, homes are snapped up. Almost, uh, you know, immediately, um, get a [00:05:00] little bit above that and they tend to sit for a little bit longer. Is there is, what's the breaking point in terms of, of your market? Yeah, I would say that the, the, the median home price here is about 450,000, give or take a little bit. Um, anything below that, if it's priced right for the neighborhood, those are the ones that they're selling pretty fast. Um, and then oddly enough, you get up to probably everything up to a million dollars, feels like it's a little bit slower, and then you get over a million. The, the people that aren't affected as much by what's going on in the economy. And we're seeing big boom in that area as well. And I think that's what's leading to the higher, uh, median sales price because the last three years, the median sales price has gone up. Um, even though in some areas some of the prices have come down, but it's because we have so many higher dollar sales that are still going on. I know there are not a few people who think back to 2007, 2008 and, and the huge adjustment that took place in the real estate market at that time. Um, and I'd, I'd love to get your take on, and first of all, why that, uh, [00:06:00] why that crash happened, but also I know that there were people holding out thinking that there's another one coming and that's what I'm gonna swoop in and make, you know, a deal of a lifetime. Um, you, you don't seem convinced that, that another crash like that is, is, is we're not in the same circumstance, I guess. No, for sure. I don't think we are. Um, what caused that was a lot of bad loans. Uh, they were just. Loan products out there that if you could breathe, you qualified for a loan, whether you could pay for it or not. There was loans that if you did, if you didn't have a job, it's okay. You could just tell 'em they had a job and tell 'em how much money you made and they would give you a loan. Um, and they were doing a lot of, uh, the lower interest rate, you know, they were gonna adjust. And so there was a bad, a lot of bad loans out there, a lot of people that shouldn't have been getting loans, and that's what caused that. And I went through it. I mean, when the market crashed, I lost eight houses. Basically. We lost everything and had to start over. So, um, it was real. Um, and. I learned a lot of lessons in that. And to be honest with you, I don't think we're in that market at all. Um, we're, we're giving good loans. We have a lot of better fundamentals. People aren't [00:07:00] upside down in their house anymore like they were back then. Like, you know, when the, when the market came down, 90% of people were upside down. We don't have that anymore. A lot of people have equity now. Um, and quite honestly, I would love to have another crash like that, or. A market correction because I would totally wanna take advantage of it. 'cause I learned a lot of lessons the last time. Um, but I don't think we're in that, there's still a lot of demand here, a lot of people wanting to move here. So I don't think, I mean, we're gonna have some areas where somebody's a little bit more desperate than somebody else. And there's some, some one-offs where there's some good opportunities. But market-wide, I don't think we're gonna have a correction like that. You know, I don't mean to put you on the spot, but you, you've mentioned you learned a lot of lessons from the 2007 2008 crash. Is, is there one in particular that, uh, that stands out to you that you'd be willing to share with us today if something you learned from from that previous crash? Yeah, so a, a couple, I mean, I learned a lot of things, but one personal is, uh, I learned the, the what's really important in life versus what you think is important in life. Um, when you lose everything and have to rebuild you, you realize like, uh, the people in your life and relationship stuff, that's the [00:08:00] important stuff. Um. Also the thing I learned is that I went through a really hard time, you know, in houses, losing houses, short sales, foreclosures on several of them. Um, and I learned how to empathize with people and that's totally helped me in my career now because since then, no matter what the situation somebody is in. I've been there for the most part, and, and I can empathize with them and help 'em come up with a strategy like, okay, it doesn't have to be doom and gloom. We can figure out a way to get out of this. Um, and so as soon as I started building back from, from that time, I did a lot of short sales. I did, I sold a lot of bank owned homes. I talked to a lot of people. I helped them through loan modifications just because I went through it and now I had something to offer them that not everybody. Is either they didn't go through it or they weren't willing to share that, Hey, I did this too, and yeah, like, you're, you're not in this alone. And that's really helped me a lot in my career since then. Okay. One final question for you, and this, this has to do with a, a statement that was made earlier, I believe this week, uh, by President Trump about, uh, looking into preventing. Large [00:09:00] corporations or, um, I, I forget, I forget the correct name that I'm looking for here, but groups like BlackRock from buying up residential properties as part of their holdings. Um, I don't know if you've heard much about that, but I would love to get your take on it for what it's worth. Yeah, so I read a little bit about it and I mean, on, on the surface it sounds like it's a good idea because, you know, he is saying like, home prices are too high, people can't afford, affordability's not good. And, and all of that's true. And I think anything that can help affordability and help more people get into houses, get into 'em earlier, um, that I think that helps sets 'em up for their life. So I think all that in theory is a good idea. I think the problem though is sometimes when you start putting restrictions on stuff. You have consequences that you didn't realize. And I think doing that, you know, you take the them out of the market, you take those buyers out of the market, then it changes the whole. Market, and we don't know if that changes it for the better for us or for the worse for us. So I, I think there's too many unknowns and I'm not, I'm not ever opposed to [00:10:00] trying something, but I don't think it's a for sure, Hey, if this is what happened, this is the result we're gonna see. I don't think that we get that, and I don't think we get that in anything. In politics. Everything sounds like a great idea. You go and do it and there's some consequences that you have to deal with after the fact. I appreciate your take on that. Again, we're talking with Will Carter will, how do people find you and, and your, uh, real estate operation? Um, well, you can Google Will Carter realtor in, I'm in Tempe, Arizona. Um, I'm, I'm all over, uh, the internet. Uh, my phone number is (602) 809-1224 and my email address is will carter az.com. will@willcarteraz.com. Again, will Carter has been our guest. Thank you for joining us on the Phoenix Business Brief Podcast. Brian, thank you so much.